Record polling in Bihar means different things to different people

All three stakeholders, the Election Commission of India, the ruling NDA and the opposition alliance Maha Gathbandhan, have expressed satisfaction over the highest-ever turnout of voters during the first phase of polling in Bihar. The election commission believes the credit goes to it for conducting SIR (Special Intensive Revision) of electoral rolls and for making the voters’ experience ‘pleasant’.

The NDA leaders have exulted that the record voting and the large turnout of women indicate support for the government’s one-time cash transfer of Rs 10 thousand under the Mahila Samman scheme. The opposition’s chief-ministerial-face Tejashwi Yadav, however, believes that it indicates a vote for Badlav or change.

In assembly elections in 1995 and in the year 2000, the first in united Bihar and the second after Jharkhand was carved out, the voting percentage had actually crossed 60 per cent and surged over the previous election. On both occasions the incumbent Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) government led by Lalu Prasad Yadav and his wife Rabri Devi respectively, won the majority and returned to power.

On the contrary in 2005 the voting percentage dropped to 46 per cent and the RJD lost the election and Nitish Kumar emerged as the next chief minister. A higher polling percentage clearly does not always mean a vote against the incumbent government.

Even during the first phase of polling, the surge in voting was uneven. In some districts the polling percentage was more than last time while in others it was less. Till 5 pm, nine districts had polled above 60 per cent and in nine other districts, the polling was below 60 per cent.

In the Patna and Bhojpur areas, the polling hovered around 57 per cent although final figures are yet to come. In some constituencies, however, the polling percentage actually fell but it remains to be seen if it fell in absolute numbers.

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What this may mean is that while there is no sign of anti-incumbency against the Nitish Kumar-led government, it is possible that anti-incumbency against the candidates has been high in some of the constituencies; or it may also mean that the surge has been due to the entry of new parties like Jan Suraaj Party of Prashant Kishor.

With the NDA having repeated a higher number of sitting MLAs in this election, the anti-incumbency against them was visible on the ground. Both the deputy chief ministers, Vijay Sinha and Samrat Chaudhary, faced protests. Cow dung was thrown at the car of Sinha and both the ministers were reportedly struggling to retain their seats.

The jury is also out on whether the large turnout of women voters indicate their support for the government in power. While that is the conclusion being drawn by most analysts, there are also contra-indications that at least some sections of the women are more concerned about employment and inflation and would like badlav.

Also, how much of the surge is due to larger turnout of men and the younger voters is not yet known, making it risky to jump to conclusions.

What is clear is that the polling has not followed any set pattern, has varied from one constituency to another and been uneven and unpredictable in constituencies of the same region.

It is like the elephant and the seven blind men of Hindoostan. The fable is about the blind men trying to figure out what the elephant relay looks like and each of them conclude on what they catch hold of. The one holding the tail concludes that the animal is like a rope while the other who grasped the ears felt it was like a fan. So, the poem by a relatively obscure English poet John Godfrey Saxe ends by pointing out,

And so these men of Hindoostan
Disputed loud and long,
Each in his own opinion
Exceeding stiff  and strong.
Though each was partly in the right,
They all were in the wrong!